Archive for the ‘Articles’ Category

Click here to read article online.

Published January 29, 2019 by Heloise Wood

Sceptre has pre-empted economist Noreena Hertz’s “game-changing” book, The Lonely Century: How Isolation Imperils our Future, within 24 hours of submission, with similar deals taking place across the world after “a huge amount of international interest”.

Juliet Brooke, editorial director at the Hodder & Stoughton imprint, pre-empted world rights, excluding the US, from Jonny Geller at Curtis Brown, with publication slated for spring 2020.

Across the pond, Crown’s executive editor Talia Krohn pre-empted US rights, also within 24 hours, from Kristine Dahl at ICM on behalf of Jonny Geller. Sceptre said the book had its rights team “abuzz” with pre-empts from Barend Wallet at Unieboek Spectrum for Dutch rights – also within 24 hours – and Lawen Mohtadi at Natur & Kultur for Swedish rights.

Exploring the nature and prevalence of isolation in the modern world, The Lonely Century is billed by Sceptre as “an important, game-changing book about the most pressing issue of today”.

“Tackling the loneliness crisis from a global perspective, the author demonstrates how a wide range of modern advances have conspired to sever our connection to the world and each other and why if we do not intervene it is going to get much worse,” the publisher said. “The Lonely Century closes with a call for arms and a bold new vision for what we must do at an individual, government and business level if we are to reconnect society, repair its fractures and alleviate our collective loneliness. Ultimately this is a book of hope.”

Brooke revealed she feels “evangelical” about this book.

The Lonely Century takes an intimate issue and shows how the political, economic and technological infrastructure of our lives colours our most private emotions, and the societal crisis that engenders,” she said. “Taking in everything from the rise of the far-right to courtesy towards robots, The Lonely Century has the power to change how we behave, which is very exciting indeed.”

Hertz says: “I am overwhelmed by the response I have had to my proposal globally and delighted to be working with Juliet Brooke and the whole team at Sceptre as well as Talia Krohn and Crown on the publication of this book.”

Hertz advises a select group of the world’s leading business and political figures on strategy, economic and geo-political risk, artificial intelligence, digital transformation, and different sectors of society. Having graduated from university aged 19, she went on to complete a PhD from Cambridge University and has an MBA from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. She is now based at University College London where she is an honorary professor.



Please click here to view article on Noreena’s ITV blog.

In the past 10 years, the number of people over the age of 65 who are at work has doubled. More than one million of Britain’s pensioners are now clocking on. But is this by choice or is it due to circumstance? And what does this imply for the rest of us? I went on a journey across the country to find out.

For some like 92-year-old Tom Brogan, work clearly enhances life. I could see how much he enjoys interacting with his customers at Asda and how much his fellow employees cherish him. Tom talked of how work gives him “independence” and of how it “gets me out of bed”. Similar sentiments were shared by several of the other over-65s in work I spoke with.

And I get that, being stuck at home all day could be really lonely and dull. But what if you’re not healthy enough to go out to work each day? Or don’t have enough energy? Forty percent of over-65s have limiting chronic health issues.

And is it that easy to get work if you’re older? Because despite laws against age discrimination the reality, as I found, is that getting a job when you’re over 50 is tough. More than a third of over-50s who were looking for work past year had been searching for more than 12 months.

Julia Clancy – a charismatic former hairdresser – is 59. She’s been applying for hundreds of jobs to no avail for the past two years. I could understand how demoralising it was for her “to imagine a future when all she had to live on was £73 a week”.

“I can’t see any light at the end of this tunnel,” she told me.

It’s not that older employees make worse employees, the opposite is in fact true. Andy Briggs the Government Business Champion for Older Workers had enlightening statistics to share. An over 50-year-old is less than half as likely to take a sick day than a 20 to 25-year-old and five times less likely to leave and change jobs than a 20 to 30-year-old. And whilst some of our skills do wane with age, our experience and knowledge grows.

Businesses need to wake up to the fact that older workers can add significant value and nurture their older employees better. Most could do much better than they currently are on this front.

For those of us not yet approaching retirement my journey shed light on something else: how ill prepared most of us are for our twilight years. In Holland it’s common for people to save 20% of their salary for their retirement. Here in the UK, latest figures from Prudential show nearly one in seven workers retiring this year have made no other financial provisions for life after work and will be relying solely on their state pension to survive.

What this means it that for most of us working into later life will be a necessity, if we hope to retain a decent standard of living that is.

Retirement is increasingly a luxury many will never be able to afford.

La Vanguardia – Generation K

September 21st, 2017 by admin

La Vanguardia 1 La Vanguardia 2


Please click here to read an article on Generation K published in La Vanguardia.


Sirius XM Holdings Inc-Noreena-Hertz

Please click here to view article from CISION online.

NEW YORKJuly 31, 2017 /PRNewswire/ — Today SiriusXM, a U.S.-based radio company with more than 32 million subscribers, announced the debut of MegaHertz: London Calling hosted by one of the United Kingdom’s most noted and dynamic intellectuals, Noreena Hertz. The program will broadcast live from London starting Monday, August 28 at 1:00 p.m. ET on SiriusXM Insight channel 121.

With her new Insight program, Hertz will become SiriusXM’s first foreign-based host for news and talk programming and will serve as Chief Europe Correspondent across all talk radio channels. Her show, MegaHertz: London Calling, will invite listeners into Hertz’s salon, bringing a powerful variety of voices and opinions from the across the Atlantic.

Each episode will transport listeners into Hertz’s inner circle, an eclectic mix of writers, thinkers, political players, artists, business leaders, comedians, celebrities, and more. During the one-hour live show, Hertz and her guests will discuss and debate topics ranging from news and current events, to pop culture, business, the arts and beyond, as well as provide a unique opportunity to hear European-based perspectives on stories dominating headlines in the United States.

“I’m hugely excited to be launching MegaHertz: London Calling on SiriusXM and beginning a relationship with its listeners,” said Hertz. “The world has never been more vibrant, complex and controversial. I have plenty to say about the big topics affecting us all and will be inviting an eclectic and energetic mix of guests to debate them with me here in the UK and our listeners across America.”

“Designer Vivienne Westwood has said of Noreena’s writings, ‘That is what punk is all about,’ and that is the exact type of energy and attitude SiriusXM subscribers can expect from Noreena,” said Scott Greenstein, President and Chief Content Officer of SiriusXM. “Beyond her reputation as one of Britain’s foremost intellectuals, Noreena will also deliver an irreverent European flair and offer SiriusXM listeners nationwide a fresh perspective from across the pond.”

A respected economist who has graced the cover of Newsweek magazine and was named “one of the world’s leading thinkers” by The Observer, Hertz rose to prominence in the U.K. shortly after graduating college at 19-years-old. Hertz has a PhD from Cambridge University, an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and is currently a Visiting Professor at University College London. She has advised some of the world’s leading business and political figures, regularly chairs sessions at The World Economic Forum in Davos, and has delivered Keynote Speeches at TED conferences and Google Zeitgeist events.

Hertz’s best-selling books The Silent Takeover, IOU: The Debt Threat, and Eyes Wide Open are published in 22 countries. She has written for The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, The Financial Times, The Guardian, The Times of London and Wired, and has appeared on flagship television shows on CBS, CNBC, PBS, the BBC, and ITV.

MegaHertz: London Calling will join Insight’s powerful lineup, which includes programs from Pete DominickJohn Fugelsang, and Neil De Grasse Tyson, and features WNYC’s Here’s The Thing with Alec Baldwin and Freakonomics Radio.

SiriusXM recently announced that its 200+ channels – including SiriusXM Insight – are now also available for streaming to SiriusXM subscribers nationwide with Amazon Alexa. Go to to learn more.

About SiriusXM

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) is the world’s largest radio company measured by revenue and has more than 32.0 million subscribers. SiriusXM creates and offers commercial-free music; premier sports talk and live events; comedy; news; exclusive talk and entertainment, and a wide-range of Latin music, sports and talk programming. SiriusXM is available in vehicles from every major car company and on smartphones and other connected devices as well as online at SiriusXM radios and accessories are available from retailers nationwide and online at SiriusXM. SiriusXM also provides premium traffic, weather, data and information services for subscribers through SiriusXM Traffic™, SiriusXM Travel Link, NavTraffic®, NavWeather™. SiriusXM delivers weather, data and information services to aircraft and boats through SiriusXM Aviation™ and SiriusXM Marine™. In addition, SiriusXM Music for Business provides commercial-free music to a variety of businesses. SiriusXM holds a minority interest in SiriusXM Canada which has approximately 2.8 million subscribers. SiriusXM is also a leading provider of connected vehicles services, giving customers access to a suite of safety, security, and convenience services including automatic crash notification, stolen vehicle recovery assistance, enhanced roadside assistance and turn-by-turn navigation.

To download SiriusXM logos and artwork, visit

This communication contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results, our plans, objectives, expectations and intentions with respect to future operations, products and services; and other statements identified by words such as “will likely result,” “are expected to,” “will continue,” “is anticipated,” “estimated,” “believe,” “intend,” “plan,” “projection,” “outlook” or words of similar meaning. Such forward-looking statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of our management and are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond our control. Actual results and the timing of events may differ materially from the results anticipated in these forward-looking statements.

The following factors, among others, could cause actual results and the timing of events to differ materially from the anticipated results or other expectations expressed in the forward-looking statements: our substantial competition, which is likely to increase over time; our ability to attract and retain subscribers, which is uncertain; interference to our service from wireless operations; consumer protection laws and their enforcement; unfavorable outcomes of pending or future litigation; the market for music rights, which is changing and subject to uncertainties; our dependence upon the auto industry; general economic conditions; the security of the personal information about our customers; existing or future government laws and regulations could harm our business; failure of our satellites would significantly damage our business; the interruption or failure of our information technology and communications systems; our failure to realize benefits of acquisitions or other strategic initiatives; rapid technological and industry changes; failure of third parties to perform; our failure to comply with FCC requirements; modifications to our business plan; our indebtedness; our principal stockholder has significant influence over our affairs and over actions requiring stockholder approval and its interests may differ from interests of other holders of our common stock; impairment of our business by third-party intellectual property rights; and changes to our dividend policies which could occur at any time. Additional factors that could cause our results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016, which is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) and available at the SEC’s Internet site ( The information set forth herein speaks only as of the date hereof, and we disclaim any intention or obligation to update any forward looking statements as a result of developments occurring after the date of this communication.


low unemployment


Please click here to view article on Noreena’s ITV blog.

Unemployment figures out today reveal that the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.5% – a 42 year low .

This is good news for workers who in such a jobs market can be choosier.

Although they won’t necessarily be paid more. Historically lower unemployment has meant that wages have increased – basic supply and demand.

But despite the record low level of unemployment, today’s data revealed that real wages have continued to fall – the three month average rate of wage growth fell to 1.8% in May from 2.1% in April. Wage growth hasn’t been this low since October 2014.

For many employers, today’s story presents a real challenge – how to keep recruiting the right people when so many are already in work?

And many are worried that their task is about to get a lot harder. This is because low unemployment coupled with the end of free movement of labour that Brexit implies presents a double whammy which is likely to make recruitment significantly harder in the future.

This is especially true for those sectors which rely on the services of low and middle skilled workers.

Such sectors as food manufacturing, hospitality and social care have relatively high percentages of European workers – the hospitality sector employs over 500,000 Europeans.

Should Brexit mean that they could no longer hire Europeans, this would imply significant potential labour shortages in the future.

Premier Inn is a growing UK business. According to its management it is opening on average a new hotel every ten days. 20% of its staff come from outside of the UK, predominantly from Europe.

But despite this Chief Operating Officer Simon Ewins tells me, that he is “not concerned at this moment in time”.

He believes this is because they pay better than the industry norm, provide considerable training and development opportunities to employees, and also because they have in the past few years implemented a policy of looking outside of traditional employment pools within the UK – they have schemes to attract employees straight from school, from amongst the ex military and also ex offenders.

“People can build careers here, both in Premier Inn and in the industry more widely and therefore we think we can attract and retain talent even in a tighter labour market.”

Simon Ewin’s lack of concern bucks the general trend amongst employers (Premier Inn’s relative size and success helps to explain this). In an extensive piece of research conducted by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and CIPD which surveyed and interviewed over a thousand employers across the country in industries that rely on low and middle skilled employees, researchers Dr Heather Rolfe and Gerwyn Davies found that the majority of such employers are worried about how they will meet their staffing needs in the future and see the hiring of local British workers as a significant challenge.

Premier Inn is a growing UK business Credit: PA

Premier Inn is a growing UK business Credit: PA

With a third of those they interviewed saying that they recruit EU nationals because they simply cannot fill their positions with UK born applicants. Whilst they found that some employers were being proactive.

Dr Rolfe told me: “We have [some] employers saying they’re working much more closely with Job Centres, they’re working with their industry organisations to try to think of ways in which they might attract young people. They’re reviewing their pay and benefits packages as well. So they’re looking at ways in which they might attract more British workers.”

However, what surprised the researchers was that despite this, and despite being aware that Brexit might severely restrict their ability to employ EU nationals, many of those they interviewed were still in ‘wait and see’ mode. In a competitive domestic labour market such as ours and with Brexit looming, ‘wait and see’ may prove a very dangerous strategy.

Please click here to view article on Noreena’s ITV blog.


Cambridge University

The Vice-Chancellor of Cambridge University has intervened over the government’s offer to EU Nationals living and working in Britain. Simply put, he doesn’t think it went anywhere near far enough. And he fears for its impact on the 808-year-old institution.

During my interview with Sir Leszek Borysiewicz, he didn’t mince his words. “We may be fiddling while Rome’s burning”, he cautioned “We have to be very very careful that Brexit doesn’t become Brexodus.”

It comes in the week the prime minister laid out plans to offer ‘settled status’ to EU citizens who had lived in the UK for five years or more.

Although they could stay indefinitely, for Professor Borysiewicz it doesn’t go quite far enough.

Nor did he feel that there was sufficient clarity when it came to what Theresa May had offered. The government needs to recognise the devil is in the detail,” he said.

Brexodus – the Vice-Chancellors phrase for a Brexit exodus – would be a disaster for Cambridge University. Almost a quarter of staff are non-UK EU nationals.

When it comes to Post-Docs, (the young researchers who are the engine of Research & Development) it is even higher. They are typically offered contracts that are far shorter than five years. But the best are often willing to pick from the world’s best universities.

If Cambridge is to continue to stay in the top tier of universities globally it needs to be able to continue to retain and attract the best academics from anywhere in the world.

That’s why Sir Leszek (“call me Boris”) is so concerned. “What is going to be the status of their partners? Of their children?”

He has other concerns too. In the past 10 years Cambridge has received 600 million Euros in EU funding. Although the government has promised to meet any immediate shortfall after March 2019, the whole process is yet to be agreed. Alongside that funding comes collaborations.

It is the lifeblood of universities; 60% of Cambridge’s research comes in the form of collaborative projects with other EU institutions. It can’t allow those ties to be severed. As my interview drew to a close, he raised a wry smile, “that’s before we’ve even touched immigration.”

So is the government listening to this sector’s needs? Well, the Vice-Chancellor told me “It is very difficult to tell”.

Please click here to view article on Noreena’s ITV blog.



Heavy rain is forecast throughout the UK on Thursday.

Conventional wisdom suggests that this would mean fewer people will turn out and that this is bad for Labour as traditionally lower voter numbers results in a more favourable result for the Conservatives.

But is conventional wisdom right?

I have trawled through the academic literature on weather and elections and this is my considered response.

Whilst there have been no detailed academic studies looking at the relationship between rain and turnout at General Elections in the UK (surprising given how interested we are as a nation in the weather), in a number of countries such studies a relationship between rain and turnout has been found to hold.

In the US researchers have found that for each inch of rain turnout falls by about one percentage point.

A similarly negative relationship between rain and turnout has been found in Spain and the Netherlands.

In Sweden, however, no statistically significant relationship has been found to hold between rain and turnout.

Assuming that Sweden is the outlier here – and I think this is a reasonable assumption to make given how used Swedes are to extreme weather conditions and how strong their sense of civic duty is – it implies that on Thursday we should expect lower turnout than if the weather had been better.

(Note: not all experts may agree with my assumption. Professor Stephen Fisher from The University of Oxford, tells me that he’s looked at overall turnout at British elections since 1945 and finds no systematic pattern whereby turnout is lower when the weather is worse).

Traditionally lower turnout favours the Tories – but that claim is one about turnout in general.

If turnout is reduced specifically due to poor weather it’s less clear who it would favour. That’s because it’s unclear as to who is less likely to go to vote in the rain. The old? Or the young?

If the old stay at home, that’s bad news for the Tories, if the young, that’s bad news for Labour.

It’s also interesting to consider some fascinating research looking at the relationship between wind speed and voter preferences in the US and Switzerland.

It found that higher the wind speed, the more the electorate favours candidates whose message stresses safety and the retaining of the status quo.

“Safety and the retaining of the status quo” sounds very much like Theresa May’s “strong and stable “message.

So how windy will it be on Thursday? Looking at the Met Office’s wind map projections for Thursday it looks like there won’t be a significant breeze.

Last updated Tue 6 Jun 2017

What will this election mean for you?

June 7th, 2017 by admin

Please click here to view Noreena’s article in Stlye, The Sunday Times.


My name is Noreena and I have election ennui. It’s not just that this is the third time I’ve been called to vote in 25 months. Even for a cheerleader for democracy like me, this is somewhat excessive. There’s also the feeling — we’ve all seen the polls — that whoever I support, the outcome of this election is already a done deal; an inevitability that, come Friday, the Tories will have won their third election in a row; that whether I’m Team Theresa or not, my single vote doesn’t really matter.

Except it does.

I’m not going to harp on here about the importance of respecting the history of women’s suffrage, although I do believe that glorious respect is due. It is that the purpose of voting is not just to help propel your own team to victory (not that I’m dismissing the pleasure of being on the winning side), it is to make damn certain that whichever party claims the keys to Downing Street is acutely aware that vast numbers of people think differently to them, believe different things, have different priorities.

For democracy to function effectively, diverse voices must be heard. Yet according to the Fawcett Society, some 8m women may not vote at this election. Imagine how things could be shaken up if they did. If we allow men to continue to dominate at the ballot box and in the debating chamber — 71% of MPs in the last parliament were men — it’s only natural that what matters most to men will still be prioritised.

It’s a message I heard loud and clear growing up. My late mother was a renowned feminist activist and champion of women in politics, who stood for parliament herself. “Noreena,” she’d tell me, when I was eight or nine, after I’d reported witnessing a kid being bullied at school or come to her in tears after watching a story about famine in Africa, “speak up for what you believe in. If you don’t, who will?”

Now, to be clear, I don’t believe that certain issues inherently matter more to women, that health and education are de facto female issues, while the more muscular concerns of the economy, taxation and our relationship with the EU are intrinsically male. I happen to care a lot about these, and am still surprised when people assume that the economics professor on the credit card must be my husband. But everyone is different. And women are no more different than men. How much you earn, your age, whether you have children, aged parents, are married, your ethnicity — these will all affect what matters most to you and who you vote for.

Yet if we think about women in the aggregate — the average Jane, so to speak — the reality is that her life is very different to the life of the average Joe. Bluntly speaking, women are less likely to be promoted and more likely to be paid less, to bear the brunt of caring responsibilities, whether for children or elderly parents, and be the greater victims of domestic abuse. This means that if it’s not only your own back you want to watch, but also those of your “sisters”, what each party has to say on these issues really matters.

Most parties, of course, acknowledge that targeting the female vote can pay off. So combing through this batch of election manifestos, I wasn’t surprised to see overt courting of women.

The Women’s Equality Party unsurprisingly leads the pack here, given that its female-focused agenda is written on the tin. Flagship policies include universal free childcare, “fully equal” parental leave, big bucks for social care and more protection for women against discrimination at work. It was heartening to read through 31 pages of policies targeted at women, even if I don’t agree with everything it proposes and recognise its chances of cutting through this election are extremely slim (the combination of a snap election, limited resources and bare-bones infrastructure means it is fielding only seven candidates). But their prospectus did make me wonder how much more women could be valued in our society if all parties had the imagination to think this differently and comprehensively.

The offerings from the three mainstream parties were considerably more femme-lite — paragraphs rather than pages. All three promise to provide some additional free childcare. All three promise to encourage some more paternity leave. All three address, in some way or other, the crisis in care. All three promise some progress on the gender pay gap. But there are significant differences when it comes to the how much, when and how.

As for which other women’s issues make the leading triumvirate’s shopping list, the parties diverge. Among the pledges from the Lib Dems are free sanitary products for girls at school. The Lib Dems are also offering more mental-health funding for pregnant women and mothers, and quotas for numbers of women on company boards. Having sat on corporate boards, I think it’s amazing how far we have to go to achieve gender parity. Among the Tories’ pledges is a commitment to ensure the civil service is more gender-balanced; overseas, a promise to lead on education of girls globally and to fight against the modern slave trade. I was at Davos this year when Theresa May shared, in a private session, her commitment to ending modern slavery. This is clearly an issue close to her heart. Labour’s proposals run the gamut from pledges to deliver a cabinet that is at least 50% female — Justin Trudeau made a similar promise in Canada and delivered — to extra money for female pensioners. It also commits to ensure that workers have equal rights from day one, whether part- or full-time — considering a lot of women work part-time, this could disproportionately benefit them.

These are the obvious hard sells. But how about the political choices that less obviously affect women differently to men? Policies on areas such as Brexit, austerity and the economy? We don’t typically think of these as being gendered. But they are.

Take austerity — it’s a double whammy for women. It hurts them disproportionately because they make up the bulk of the public-sector workforce and, therefore, suffer most when this sector is slashed — 77% of NHS workers are female. Cuts to welfare and benefits freezes also hurt women most because they are poorer in the first place and more likely to be affected by reductions in child benefits: 90% of single parents are mothers. The Lib Dems and Labour have committed to reversing some of the Tories’ welfare reforms.

As for Brexit, it clearly has the potential to create significant female collateral damage. The EU has long been a champion of gender equality and has played a key role in advancing maternal employment rights and ensuring that women are paid equally for work of equal value. It has also been a considerable funder of female causes. Without its pressure and euros, there is a real danger that women’s rights could be significantly eroded. I’ve spoken to many women’s organisations who are worried on this front. And then there’s the fact that women suffer disproportionately in downturns. Most economists believe that in the long-term, Brexit will come at a cost. Which party will minimise this? I’ll leave it to you to make that call.

These are some of the big issues and a few of the ways they affect us. But as we decide who to vote for on June 8 as women, is there something else we should be considering? What about the gender of the candidates on the ballot paper? Has the time come for us to only consider the women on the ballot slip? Or only candidates from parties that are led by a woman? Should gender trump policy and politics? This might sound extreme, but there’s a vast body of research that highlights how much better group decisions are when the group is made up more evenly of men and women; how problems are better solved and more innovative solutions reached when women are at the table, too. More women MPs isn’t just good for women, it’s good for men, too. But while the argument for “picking the woman” is strong, it’s not strong enough. Take it to its logical conclusion and you’d be voting for Marine Le Pen.

If you are choosing between similar candidates, go for the woman for sure, but chromosomes should not override politics and values combined. Especially not now. These are radically uncertain times, of great international instability, environmental peril and technological change. The right leadership matters now more than ever.

So, use your vote wisely, make your voice heard. And when casting your vote, don’t only think about what matters to you: remember there’s a special place in hell for women who don’t help each other.

Please click here to view article on Noreena’s blog.


When interviewed by Jeremy Paxman, the Prime Minister was unambiguous. Time and time again she issued the mantra “no deal is better than a bad deal”.

But is it really?

I get that it’s a strong negotiating posture to make explicit that you are willing to walk away if need be. But no deal means the UK would default to WTO rules. And most economists and trade experts are clear – this would come at a clear cost.

Here are just some of their concerns:

– Under WTO rules countries cannot discriminate between each other. So under the no-deal scenario the EU would have to treat the UK in the same way it treats other countries with which it does not have a free trade agreement. This means it is inevitable we would have to pay higher tariffs than we currently do when we sell our goods into Europe.
– For some sectors these higher tariffs are very significant. In the dairy/agri-food sector we are talking up to 40%. In the automotive and automotive parts sector, up to 10%. These sectors’ costs of production would go up which means that British exporters to Europe would have to either take a significant hit themselves or raise their prices and risk out-pricing themselves.

– The Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders warns “import tariffs could push up the list price of cars imported to the UK from the EU by an average of £1,500 if brands and their retail networks were unable to absorb these additional costs”.
– Because the WTO limits the amount of agricultural subsidies a country can provide there is concern that if we default to WTO rules we won’t be able to continue paying the level of subsidies to our farmers we currently are.
– The National Farmers Union says: “The impact assessment produced by the University of Wageningen shows that under this scenario [WTO rules alone] with the full abolition of direct support, farm incomes would fall on average by €17,000 (£14,752 per year).”

– Then there are of course a whole host of non-tariff barriers that would come into play were we to default to WTO rules such as having to certify that exports comply with EU rules.
– IFS analysis of an under “WTO rules” scenario suggests trade between the UK and EU would fall between 17% and 29% and GDP by between 2.6% and 3.1%. That would be a loss, at 2016 prices, of between £48.6 billion and £58 billion.
Through an economics lens it’s clear that no deal comes at a cost.

Of course for those for whom taking back control of our borders overrides all else this may be considered a price worth paying.
Last updated Tue 30 May 2017

Please click here to view article on Noreena’s ITV blog.


These are some initial thoughts on some of the key policy announcements in the draft Labour manifesto.

Yesterday we learned about many of Labour’s education plans.

Today we learnt that in addition they propose the scrapping of university tuition fees.

Whilst it’s not clear exactly how much this would cost it’s probably of the order of £11 billion.

Combined with their other education commitments, this would likely max out the revenue they expect to get from increasing corporation tax (£19.4 billion).

With regards the £6 billion extra spending on health they propose, and the additional £8 billion on social care.

First question is, is this enough?

The NHS funding shortfall is predicted to be vastly in excess of £6 billion.

Second, can the proposed increases in health and social care expenditure be covered by the tax increases and cost savings they propose?

They say these will be covered in part by the increases in taxes those earning over £80,000 will pay.

But as no further detail was provided in the draft manifesto on this tax policy, we don’t know yet how much more those earning over £80k will pay and how much this will raise.

And whilst they say that any shortfall will be covered by their plan to increase tax on private medical insurance and halve the fees to management consultants – again how much these would raise was not spelled out in the draft manifesto.

On their proposed borrowing to invest £250 billion in infrastructure over the next 10 years.

If you believe the economy is demand deficient and that such investment will end up boosting productivity, you might well conclude that this is a sensible policy, especially given how low borrowing rates are.

However this will have implications for the deficit which may well worry others.

Finally, the next three points on the debt and deficit seem pretty sensible.
-The additional flexibility Labour are providing themselves on the deficit and debt pledging to eliminate current spending deficit over a rolling five- year timescale
– Lower debt as a proportion of trend Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the end of each Parliament
– Giving the Office for Budget Responsibilty (OBR) a clear mandate to say if government is breaching rules

But is the fiscal credibility rule overly flexible?

It can be easy for the government to disagree with the OBR’s assessment of the trend.

Whilst the five-year rolling window does not provide much of a current incentive to be fiscally responsible.
Last updated Fri 2 Jun 2017